IntellaZone
Receipts · forward-tested record
As of September 11, 2026 at 6:55 AM ETSign in →
What this page is
Every claim here was logged before the outcome was knowable.
IntellaZone is a market-analysis desk for self-directed investors — TSP and 401(k) allocations, stocks, ETFs, futures and crypto. It publishes a directional read on each name it covers. This page is the record of how those reads turned out.
Each call is written down the moment it is made, scored against SPY at fixed windows, and tested under hypotheses stamped in advance. Verdicts change only at pre-registered reads — including the ones that went against the product. Nothing on this page is a backtest, a pick, or advice.
Experiments running now
E4SEALED
range state, ranking, grades, exit rules
day 21 of 30 · read in 9 days
Day 0 Aug 21 · read Sep 20 · 7d cutoff Sep 13
core scanner + universe-x1 · 20 picks/night
- H1 range-state conditioning
- H2 ranking-inversion persistence
- H3 grade monotonicity
- X1 day-1 kill rule
- X2 day-5 time stop
Verdicts come from the pre-registered bars at the Sep 20 read. Live flags are measured, never executed — the platform does not trade.
B1SEALED
benchmark cohorts
day 18 of 30 · read in 12 days
Day 0 Aug 24 · read Sep 23 · 7d cutoff Sep 16
three ghost lanes (equal-weight, trend-momentum, relative-strength) race the composite · 20 each/night
- each lane vs the composite at 7d, ±0.5 pt bars, n ≥ 150 per lane
Head-to-head numbers are sealed until the read; only evidence accumulation is visible anywhere on the platform.
A1SEALED
AI second opinion
day 17 of 30 · read in 13 days
Day 0 Aug 25 · read Sep 24 · 7d cutoff Sep 17
an independent model opinion logged beside every scanner pick, model recorded per row
- H1 disagreement as a filter: endorsed beats rejected by ≥ 1.0 pt at 7d, n ≥ 100 / 60
- H2 calibration: Brier < 0.25 and below base rate; overconfidence gap ≤ 15 pts
Read slices by model; Fable-era and Opus-era rows are never compared unblinded.
Scoreboard
Confirmed
8
Failed or retired
5
Context / untestable
3
Sealed / pending
11
Confirmed 30%Failed or retired 19%Context 11%Sealed 41%
Tallied from the ledger below, never hand-counted. Two products have been retired by their own scoreboard; one suspension executed by pre-committed rule.
Nightly integrity
PASS WARN · brief lane short FAIL SKIPPED · non-trading day
Every night at 11:45 PM ET a check counts what each logging lane wrote and grades the night. Last graded: 2026-09-10 · PASS.
Is the confidence number worth anything?
Scores run overconfident by about 21.6 points on average; the widest gap is in the 70–80 band, which claims 74 and delivers 39.
The highest-conviction 189 closed predictions beat SPY by more than 1% at seven days in 38.6% of cases, against 51.6% for the lowest-conviction 184 — a gap of 13.0 points, but the two intervals overlap, so the score has not yet been shown to order outcomes at all.
Every pick carries a conviction score. This asks the question nobody asks of their own: does that number behave like a probability, and does the ordering it implies actually order outcomes? A hit means the call beat SPY by more than 1% at seven days. When the test cannot be passed, the statistics are withheld rather than published with a caveat — a rigorous-looking figure computed from an input that does not satisfy its assumptions is worse than no figure at all.
All-time record by product
AI watchlist alerts (retired)
209 logged
7d
45.5%
n=154
30d
40.6%
n=160
90d
47.2%
n=36
Daily Brief v1 (retired)
133 logged
7d
40.6%
n=101
30d
31.6%
n=98
90d
26.1%
n=23
Scanner long picks
999 logged
7d
47.4%
n=800
30d
41.7%
n=653
90d
29.5%
n=200
Scanner short picks
1,008 logged
7d
46.5%
n=776
30d
43.6%
n=659
90d
39.9%
n=213
TSP allocation picks
136 logged
7d
50%
n=30
30d
68.2%
n=22
90d
—
n=0
WIN = beat SPY by more than 1% over the window (short calls inverted); LOSS = trailed by more than 1%; PUSH = within ±1%. The hairline on each bar marks 50% — the coin flip. Cells under n=10 are noise and are marked as such. Retired products stay on the board.
The verdict trail
E4 — live (Day 0: Aug 21, 2026 · read Sep 20)
Charter stamped Aug 21. Standing caveat, pre-committed: E3 matured in a single bullish regime, so long-side results were flattered and shorts penalized by drift. E4 verdicts carry whatever regime E4 delivers; none may be excused or upgraded by regime narrative after the fact. Kill criteria: pooled 7d n < 300 at the read downgrades every verdict to observational; the Best Available suspension lifts only if H1 or H2 passes with a deployable positive signal.
E4-H1
Range-state conditioning (lead): COILED picks beat TRENDING-WEAK picks by ≥ 1.0 pt at 7d, COILED positive with win rate > 50%, n ≥ 100 per cell.
Promoted from the E3 observation (COILED +0.83 vs TRENDING-WEAK −0.77). If it passes: candidate second gate condition for E5. If it fails: stamped as in-sample noise.
SEALED
E4-H2
Ranking-inversion persistence: long book minus short book at 7d, n ≥ 150 per side.
≥ +1.0 predictive · ≤ −1.0 persistently anti-predictive (triggers a scanner-weight review charter for E5) · between: no cross-sectional signal.
SEALED
E4-H3
Grade monotonicity: A ≥ B+ ≥ B at 7d (longs) with A−B separation ≥ 0.5 pt, n ≥ 30 per cell.
Any inversion demotes grades to internal-only pending a recalibration charter. As of Sep 3 the B cell will not reach n by the read — that cell will read UNTESTABLE, not pass.
SEALED
E4-X1
Day-1 kill rule: a pick whose first full trading day closes against entry is marked KILLED-D1. Pass if that cohort's eventual-stop rate exceeds its eventual-target rate by ≥ 15 pts, n ≥ 100.
Designed from the Aug 20 stop/target diagnostic; the mechanical basis (an adverse day 1 sits nearer the stop) is acknowledged in the charter. Measured, never executed.
SEALED
E4-X2
Day-5 time stop: picks unresolved at the day-5 close are marked EXPIRED-D5. Pass if their forward expectancy from day 5 is ≤ +0.10R, n ≥ 80.
Day 5 was chosen over day 3 before any E4 data existed and cannot be adjusted after. If it passes, a ~5-day horizon becomes the stamped plan horizon for E5 only — never retrofitted to E3/E4 rows.
SEALED
B1 and A1 — live (Day 0: Aug 24 / Aug 25, 2026)
Two of the three concurrent slots. Both scoreboards are sealed; the platform shows evidence accumulation only.
B1
Benchmark cohorts: do simple ghost rankings (equal-weight, trend-momentum, relative-strength) match the composite scanner? ±0.5 pt bars at 7d, n ≥ 150 per lane.
Read on or about Sep 23. A composite that fails to beat its own simple benchmarks is a finding, and it will be published as one.
SEALED
A1-H1
Disagreement as a filter: scanner picks the second-opinion model endorses beat the ones it rejects by ≥ 1.0 pt at 7d, n ≥ 100 endorsed / 60 rejected.
Read on or about Sep 24. Known before the read: the scorer stored a direction default for short-side rows; the read derives beat-SPY as-called from the relative return and the scanner direction and never reads the stored result field.
SEALED
A1-H2
Calibration: Brier score < 0.25 and below the base rate; overconfidence gap ≤ 15 pts against the prior 53.5.
Model recorded per row (two models across the window). Verdicts are sliced by model.
SEALED
Mirror Backtest — run Aug 22, 2026 (diagnostic)
The one backtest this platform runs, and only as a check on itself: the frozen E3 configuration replayed over the E3 window, single run, published regardless of outcome. The platform does not backtest to find strategies.
MIRROR
Replay of the frozen scanner over the E3 window lands within ±1.5 pts of the forward result.
Replay +0.726 vs forward −0.13 — inside the pre-registered band, so the forward record is not a logging artifact. The long-short spread flipped sign versus live E3; that finding was handed to E4-H2 rather than interpreted here.
CONSISTENT
E3 — read complete (Day 0: Jul 20 · 7-day checkpoint Aug 3 · 30-day read Aug 20, 2026)
Pre-registered Jul 19. Cohorts: core scanner, universe-x1 (a zero-overlap defensive/dividend list), TSP allocation, Daily Brief. The 30-day read executed a pre-committed suspension: Best Available moved to Parked. That consequence was written before E3 began.
E3-H3
The scanner's 7-day edge persists out-of-sample (confidence interval above 50, n ≥ 30).
By pick-week, 7d avg excess vs SPY: Jul 20 +2.28 (n=122) → Jul 27 −1.93 (n=150) → Aug 3 +0.03 (n=150) → Aug 10 −0.66 (n=90). Pooled −0.13 (n=512, 47.9% win rate). The launch-week edge seen at the Aug 3 checkpoint (+1.49, n=81) did not persist. SUSPEND-to-Parked fired as registered.
FAILS
E3-H1
The regime gate discriminates out-of-sample: the approved side beats the blocked side by ≥ 2.0 pts.
Inverted. The flag read "bull" every night of the matured window; approved longs returned −1.28 vs SPY (7d, n=256) while the blocked short-ranked names returned +1.01 raw (n=256). Single-regime caveat stamped: the gate never faced a non-bull flag in the window.
FAILS
E3-H2
A+ conviction picks outperform A picks by ≥ 1.5 pts (pooled n ≥ 30).
Zero A+ grades fired in 30 days (n=0). Logged calibration finding, not a verdict: the grade ladder was non-monotonic on longs at 7d — A −0.83 (n=52), B −1.28 (n=59), B+ −1.59 (n=141). Became an E4-H3 design input.
UNTESTABLE
E3-H4
The universe-x1 expansion list performs within 1 pt of the core list.
Core −0.12 (n=341) vs x1 −0.16 (n=171); delta 0.04. The machine generalizes across a zero-overlap universe — and the signal it generalized was not working in this window. Both halves stated.
CONFIRMS
Q-R1/R2
Range-state questions: does the edge differ across TRENDING / RANGING / COILED tape?
COILED +0.83 (7d, n=186, 55.9% win) vs TRENDING-WEAK −0.77 (7d, n=420, 43.8%). The sharpest split in the dataset, found post-hoc — so it cannot be claimed as validated. Pre-registered as E4-H1 instead.
OBSERVATIONAL
E3-BRIEF
Daily Brief v1 (AI free-picks from the watchlist) adds value vs SPY.
Negative at the Aug 3 checkpoint; −1.26 (7d, n=94) at the 30-day read. Product retired Aug 12 — see Retirements.
NEGATIVE
E2 — closed (Jun 1 – Jul 17, 2026; addendum Jul 19)
Ran across three sub-regimes: melt-up tail, geopolitical whipsaw (strikes, FOMC), and the relief rally. Closed with an addendum after a scoring-corruption repair; the addendum had power to confirm or mark low-confidence only, never to reverse. Zero verdict reversals.
E2-GATE
Regime-gated long picks beat SPY at 7 days.
+2.93 avg excess, n=158 at close. The addendum's rescored master table landed on the same number.
CONFIRMS
E2-H4
The edge is a 7-day edge; it decays by 30 days.
Completed 30-day cohort −1.41 — the picks that won at 7d faded by 30d, reinforcing the pre-registered horizon.
REINFORCES
E2-RELIEF
Relief-rally cohort at 30 days (journal cell, not a hypothesis).
25% beat rate / −8.97 avg, n=40 — matured directly into the July semiconductor rout. Stamped as hostile-tape context per the pre-committed journal rule, and displayed, not excused.
HOSTILE MARKET
Retirements
Products killed by their own scoreboard. Records preserved in full on the Track Record page; v1 and v2 numbers are never blended.
BRIEF-V1
Daily Brief v1 — AI-selected picks from the user watchlist.
Failed the Aug 3 read (negative excess vs SPY), confirmed unhealthy at the Aug 20 read. Retired Aug 12, 2026. Replaced by v2, whose picks are restricted to the scanner's own validated candidate pool and logged as a fresh cohort under its own tag, starting at n=0.
RETIRED
SCAN-V2
Legacy scanner-v2 demo logging.
Disabled Jul 2, 2026. Its era's corrupted outcome rows (677) were deleted in the all-time cleanup with the deletion documented — the only rows ever removed, removed for being unscoreable, not for being losses.
RETIRED
Data integrity — caught and repaired
A ledger that only listed wins would be marketing. These are the bookkeeping failures found, fixed and disclosed. Since Sep 3 a nightly integrity check grades every lane at 11:45 PM ET and writes the grade to a log the public page reads.
SEP-3
Production stuck on an Aug 30 build for four days: a truncated integrity-check file failed every deploy.
Rebuilt Sep 3; the check now writes integrity_log nightly. A holiday weekday graded FAIL until Sep 5 — it now grades SKIPPED from the same trading calendar every logging lane uses.
CONFIRMS
AUG-4
Benchmark-snapshot gap: the TSP logger wrote no SPY snapshot after Jul 21; the Daily Brief snapshot was context-dependent; a zero-value bug ate exactly-flat returns.
Found because the Aug 3 read's cohort and gate averages disagreed by 0.74 pts. Root-caused to three bugs within 24 hours, repaired with official EOD closes (63 predictions stamped, 30 outcomes re-based, zero scoring windows contaminated). A snapshot-health watchdog now runs in the read tooling.
CONFIRMS
JUL-20
Regime-gate auth bug: server-to-server calls carried no session, silently neutralizing the macro tilt.
Caught hours before E3 Day 0; fixed by threading authentication through every caller. Disclosed because a silently-neutral gate would have invalidated E3-H1.
CONFIRMS
JUL-19
E2 scoring corruption: a scorer zero-fill wrote fake outcomes (a −84.59% "loss" on a real +9.66% win).
Rescored against real window-end closes under a pre-committed addendum with confirm/low-confidence power only. True numbers for the Jun 15 cohort were worse than the corrupted ones and were recorded as-is.
CONFIRMS
Next gates
Nothing about the live methodology changes between reads. A deploy freeze holds Sep 19–24 around the three reads.
E4-READ
E4 30-day read, Sep 20, 2026 (7-day cutoff Sep 13).
At stake: whether Best Available leaves Parked. Only H1 or H2 passing with a deployable positive signal can lift the suspension.
PENDING
B1-READ
B1 benchmark read, on or about Sep 23, 2026.
Unseals the three ghost lanes against the composite.
PENDING
A1-READ
A1 second-opinion read, on or about Sep 24, 2026.
Sliced by model. The scorer direction fix and the regime backfill are bundled after this read, never before it.
PENDING
How the record is kept
- Every directional call is written to the database at the moment it is made, with the symbol's price and SPY's price locked in.
- Calls log only in a fixed evening window after the daily bar has closed; a daytime visit logs nothing.
- A scheduled job scores each call at 7, 30 and 90 days against SPY. Nothing is edited retroactively; no loss is deleted.
- The first run of each trading day is canonical; re-runs are flagged as duplicates and excluded from every read.
- Prices are compared to official end-of-day closes; a snapshot-health watchdog runs before every read.
How the methods are tested
- At most three experiments run at once. The three slots are full (E4, B1, A1).
- No methodology changes mid-experiment. Weights, gate logic and universes change only through a charter, after a read.
- Incubation gate: no signal is displayed to users until it has ≥ 30 sealed forward days and a passing read.
- Replication before adoption: a result must repeat out-of-sample before it changes the product.
- Every read runs the six-question audit first: lookahead, leakage, outliers, regime dependence, chart-vs-number spot checks, n / confidence-interval honesty.
Win rate is not return: a 60% win rate says nothing about position sizing or the magnitude of wins versus losses. Win rates below n=30 are not conclusive. Past results do not guarantee future results. Educational information, not investment advice. Symbols, picks and sealed scoreboards are not shown on this page by design; the Track Record lists every call once you are signed in.