modules 14–2249 lessonsabout 6.5 hoursTaken after the path rather than during it. The statistics underneath every number, the instrument, the book, the person trading it, the plumbing, the tax, and the plan it all ends in.
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Module 14: The statistics underneath
Advanced6 lessons48 minFat tails, regression to the mean, base rates, correlations that mean nothing, the best of many tries, and what happens to every statistic when the world changes — the six ideas that decide how much any number on a screen is worth.
- 1Fat tails: the days the average does not describe8 min
- 2Regression to the mean: why last year's winners disappoint8 min
- 3Base rates: how often a good signal is wrong8 min
- 4Correlation: prices that move together and prices that don't8 min
- 5The best of many tries8 min
- 6When the world changes: stationarity8 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Fat tails: the days the average does not describe. Say what a fat-tailed distribution is, how much more often it produces extreme days than a normal curve of the same volatility, and why a standard deviation understates the days that decide an account.
- 2. Regression to the mean: why last year's winners disappoint. Explain why the best performers of one period usually look ordinary in the next, and estimate how much of a result repeats from the split between skill and luck.
- 3. Base rates: how often a good signal is wrong. Work out how often a signal is right when it fires, from how rare the event is, how often the signal catches it, and how often it fires falsely.
- 4. Correlation: prices that move together and prices that don't. Tell a correlation of prices from a correlation of changes, say why two unrelated trending series routinely look related, and why correlations measured in calm markets understate them in a sell-off.
- 5. The best of many tries. Calculate how likely it is that at least one of many worthless ideas looks significant by luck, and what bar holds that chance down.
- 6. When the world changes: stationarity. Explain stationarity, show how a long record can report a positive edge that has already ended, and say what a rolling window adds and what it costs.
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Module 15: Options, properly
Advanced8 lessons62 minThe contract itself: calls and puts, the chain, what an option costs and why, the Greeks, time decay and the volatility crush, the four structures most people use, and what actually happens at expiry.
- 1Calls and puts8 min
- 2Reading the chain7 min
- 3The Greeks9 min
- 4Time decay and the volatility crush8 min
- 5Covered calls and cash-secured puts8 min
- 6Spreads: defining both ends8 min
- 7Assignment and expiration7 min
- 8Sizing an option position7 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Calls and puts. Describe what a call and a put are, name the four basic positions, and say which of them has uncapped risk.
- 2. Reading the chain. Read a row of an option chain and say which of its numbers you can trust.
- 3. The Greeks. Say what each Greek answers, and which one explains a loss on a day the underlying moved your way.
- 4. Time decay and the volatility crush. Describe how time value decays and explain why a correct directional call can still lose money over an earnings report.
- 5. Covered calls and cash-secured puts. Draw the payoff of a covered call and a cash-secured put, and name the risk each one actually carries.
- 6. Spreads: defining both ends. Compute a vertical spread's maximum profit, maximum loss and break-even from its two strikes and its net cost.
- 7. Assignment and expiration. Say what happens to an option at expiry if nobody acts, and when early assignment actually occurs.
- 8. Sizing an option position. Size an option position from the premium at risk, and say why the risk rules from Module 3 need restating here.
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Module 16: Reading volume
Advanced5 lessons39 minEffort against result, absorption and climax, the accumulation and distribution lines and why they disagree, the five signatures as a set, and whether a name can carry your position at all.
- 1Effort and result8 min
- 2Accumulation, distribution and on-balance volume9 min
- 3Climax, absorption and the failed break8 min
- 4Can the name carry your position8 min
- 5Name the bar6 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Effort and result. Read one bar from its volume, its range and where it closed, and name what the three together describe.
- 2. Accumulation, distribution and on-balance volume. Say what the A/D line and on-balance volume each compute, and explain why they can disagree about the same chart.
- 3. Climax, absorption and the failed break. Recognise five volume signatures from the bars around them and say what has usually followed each.
- 4. Can the name carry your position. Turn a price, an average volume and a spread into the two numbers that decide whether an idea is tradeable.
- 5. Name the bar. Classify a bar from its three numbers without a chart, quickly and repeatably.
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Module 17: The book, not the trade
Advanced5 lessons37 minWhat six positions risk together rather than one at a time: correlation and overlap, total open heat, what an add really does, what execution costs in R, and the review cycle that turns a record into a decision.
- 1Five positions, one bet8 min
- 2Total open risk7 min
- 3What an add really does8 min
- 4The gap between the plan and the fill7 min
- 5The review cycle7 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Five positions, one bet. Explain why several positions can behave as one, and compute how much diversification a correlation actually buys.
- 2. Total open risk. Compute the total risk open across a book and set a cap for it before positions accumulate.
- 3. What an add really does. Compute the new average and the new risk after an add, and say what the stop has to do to keep the sizing honest.
- 4. The gap between the plan and the fill. Express slippage and commission in R and say what fraction of an edge they consume.
- 5. The review cycle. Name what gets read at each interval and why a fixed schedule beats reviewing after losses.
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Module 18: Behavioural risk
Advanced5 lessons39 minThe risks that come from the person rather than the position: why this is structurally hard, how ordinary a losing run is, the biases with a trading form and a number that catches each, the arithmetic of trying to get it back, and grading the decision apart from the outcome.
- 1Why this is structurally hard8 min
- 2What a losing run actually looks like7 min
- 3The biases that have a trading form9 min
- 4Trying to get it back8 min
- 5The decision and the outcome7 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Why this is structurally hard. Name the three features of trading that make it a poor environment for learning, and say what each one does to judgement.
- 2. What a losing run actually looks like. Compute how likely a losing run of a given length is, and use it to tell noise from a broken method.
- 3. The biases that have a trading form. Name six biases, the specific trading behaviour each produces, and the number in a record that reveals it.
- 4. Trying to get it back. Compute what a drawdown must recover and what doubling size to recover actually changes.
- 5. The decision and the outcome. Place a trade in the decision-outcome grid and say what each cell should change.
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Module 19: How the market actually works
Advanced5 lessons42 minWhat happens between the click and the fill, the price bands and circuit breakers that are published rules rather than opinions, the auctions that open and close the day, the extended sessions, and settlement, margin and the borrow.
- 1What happens between the click and the fill9 min
- 2Price bands and circuit breakers9 min
- 3The auctions and the shape of the day8 min
- 4Before and after the bell7 min
- 5Settlement, margin and the borrow9 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. What happens between the click and the fill. Trace an order from the broker to the venue and name where the cost lands at each step.
- 2. Price bands and circuit breakers. Compute a stock's limit up and limit down band, and name the three market-wide levels and the exception that applies to two of them.
- 3. The auctions and the shape of the day. Say what the opening and closing auctions are, and why volume and range are distributed the way they are.
- 4. Before and after the bell. Describe how the extended sessions differ and why a price there often does not survive to the open.
- 5. Settlement, margin and the borrow. Name the settlement cycle, the two margin numbers, what replaced the pattern-day-trader rule in 2026, and what makes a short hard to borrow.
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Module 20: The other instruments
Advanced5 lessons40 minFunds, futures, currencies and crypto: what one contract actually is, what a pip is worth, why a leveraged fund does not track its index over months, and which of your existing skills transfer unchanged.
- 1Funds and what they hold8 min
- 2Futures: an obligation with a date on it9 min
- 3Currencies: every price is a ratio8 min
- 4Crypto: the market that never closes8 min
- 5What transfers, and what has to be relearned7 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. Funds and what they hold. Explain how an exchange-traded fund keeps its price near the value of its holdings, and name the three ways one can disappoint.
- 2. Futures: an obligation with a date on it. Compute a contract's tick value and notional exposure, and explain what a roll is and why it costs something.
- 3. Currencies: every price is a ratio. Compute what a pip is worth for a given pair and lot size, and say why the same stop costs different amounts at different times.
- 4. Crypto: the market that never closes. Name what is structurally different about crypto markets and what custody actually means.
- 5. What transfers, and what has to be relearned. Separate the instrument-specific mechanics from the skills that carry across all of them.
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Module 21: Tax mechanics
Advanced5 lessons40 minHow US federal tax treats a trade: the one-year line, which shares a sale is said to come from, wash sales, the $3,000 loss limit and what carries forward, and the separate rules for futures, index options and trader status. How the rules work — not tax advice.
- 1The one-year line8 min
- 2Which shares you sold8 min
- 3Wash sales8 min
- 4Losses, the $3,000 limit and the carryforward8 min
- 5Futures, index options and trader status8 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. The one-year line. Say how a gain's holding period is counted, which side of the one-year line it falls on, and what that changes about the tax.
- 2. Which shares you sold. Explain what a tax lot is, which lots a sale uses when none are named, and what naming them changes and does not change.
- 3. Wash sales. Say when a loss is disallowed by the wash-sale rule, what happens to it, and the cases the broker's forms do not catch.
- 4. Losses, the $3,000 limit and the carryforward. Net a year's gains and losses, apply the annual limit, and say what carries forward and in what character.
- 5. Futures, index options and trader status. Say how section 1256 contracts are taxed and which instruments are and are not, and what trader tax status and the mark-to-market election involve.
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Module 22: Your written plan
Advanced5 lessons41 minThe twelve questions a trading plan answers, the two parts nearly every plan omits, a builder that turns your answers into a document you keep, and the rules for changing it.
- 1What a plan is for7 min
- 2The twelve questions10 min
- 3When you do not trade7 min
- 4Writing it down9 min
- 5Changing the plan8 min
What each lesson sets out to teach
- 1. What a plan is for. Distinguish a plan from a prediction, and say what a plan is protecting you from.
- 2. The twelve questions. State what each of the twelve parts must answer and what makes an answer useless.
- 3. When you do not trade. Write the conditions under which the correct action is none, and say why this part saves the most money.
- 4. Writing it down. Produce a complete written plan and keep it somewhere it will survive.
- 5. Changing the plan. State the conditions under which a plan may be changed and the procedure that keeps a change honest.